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first and most, a hell of a title, cheers!
The organic elements of a site's backlink profile are usually very dynamic (eg. social news, blog links, etc.); when you factor in things such as link discovery (eg. when Google finds them), link migration (from 1st page to next page of blog, etc.), and shifts in the ranking power of a link from an individual page (since the backlinks of the linking page have shifted as well) - plus the fact the competitors links are doing the same thing at the same time...you get a witches brew... Long term averages are semi-predictable, daily migrations are a random walk...
That being said, I can usually "feel" the effect of getting on the front page of social news site, big twitter burst, or a significant new backlink through a small link network for a couple of days (followed by a retracement)...
huge fan of this. SERP volatility is a hot topic and this is well done!
Interesting post, I haven't looked at SERPs on such a tight check schedule (normally just daily) but it's definitely something I plan to look at in more detail now.