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This topic was a big hidden weakness for me as an in-house SEO. I found this work to be one of the hardest aspects of my job and the one I felt least confident about. But Dan's put together a ton of great information and even an Excel template to make it as easy as possible for you.
I wish that I had this three years ago... but that shouldn't stop you from taking advantage of it now!
Direct link to Excel forecasting template tool:
http://danpeskin.com/organic-forecasting-excel-template/
This is super useful! Thanks Dan & Jonathon.